Review: The Dragons and the Snakes – How The Rest Learned to Fight The West – by David Kilcullen

This is one of the very best books I have ever read. It is up to date material and full of cutting edge military theory and ideas and I believe is critical essential reading for any politician or military personnel, especially those who conduct their employment in the NATO led West. I am no stranger to Australian soldier-scholar David Kilcullen’s work. This is the fourth book of his that I have read. This work surpasses the previous books and it is genuinely a masterpiece. What are the dragons and snakes? The dragons are the main, most powerful nation-state enemies. Russia and China are the main dragons and additionally we have Iran and North Korea who pose significant military threat and who are ideologically opposed to the West. The snakes are state and non-state actors. Less powerful nation states such as Iraq or Afghanistan and terrorist organisations and quasi nation jihadist states and their peripherals such as ISIS. Al Qaeda is a big snake, as is the Taliban as is Hezbollah and it is these snakes that have predominated active warfare measures from the USA and her allies in the post Cold War world. On the whole Kilcullen criticises Western military action in the recent past citing little evidence of genuine success. Traditional warfare and indeed highly technological modern military fighting that reached its zenith in the first Iraqi conflict of 1991 has been made redundant by adaptive enemies who have learnt how to successfully withstand dominance by coalition forces and have adapted techniques and tactics that have in effect neutralised our methods. While the world witnesses this stalemate between snakes and our armies the dragons have been sat watching, taking notes and suitably adapting their own military philosophies to take advantage of the new global environment. The way in which these dragons have re-emerged into active roles demonstrates new confidence and their upward projection into the future looks very daunting a positive to a fading Western democratic dominant imperialism. The main message of this book is that if we do not adjust ourselves and realign our military strategy we will ultimately face defeat and the political and economic collapse of our societies. When analysing the snakes we look in detail at various different organisations. ‘Combat Darwinism’ is an interesting scientific look at the decapitation of the snake that is Al Qaeda. Our strategic focus was to target leadership of this jihadist monster and every time a key leader was successfully culled a new hydra head on the snake was born and the enemy’s success in adaptation, even though its movement may have come close to complete annihilation, meant that natural selection allowed the foe to fight again with even more strength and resurge. Often our own militaries pulled back from the precipice due to economic and political factors, allowing the necessary reformation space for the enemy. This has been a key part of analysis for the War on Terror. After 9/11 We succeeded in killing the likes of Osama Bin Laden and most of the rest of the leadership but ‘The Base’ movement just became a self-perpetuating force unto itself without traditional vanguard leadership and it morphed into other jihadist factions such as AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq) and ISIS, producing further problems. The very fact that today, The Taliban are back in government in Afghanistan demonstrates Combat Darwinism in effect and the future of global jihad seems to be a lasting phenomenon that will continue to plague the Western World for the foreseeable future. I found the case study of Hezbollah as it fights against Israel and later in Syria to have been very illuminating. Their adaptation and growth have demonstrated how a tactically weaker military force can survive, grow more powerful and be effective in the face of complicated battle odds. Looking at the snakes we see a new Russia under the autocratic reins of Vladimir Putin who is becoming ever more military active as his increasing hostility and delusion grows especially with the latest invasion of Ukraine. Liminal warfare tactics used by Russia introduce new elements to modern warfare against the West. Operating just below the detectable surface a combination of economic warfare, information warfare and cyberwarfare does just enough damage to Russian enemies without provoking military response. From cyberwarfare attacks in Estonia through to democratic election social media disinformation warfare during Trump election in USA or Brexit in the UK, Russia is undermining the West. Often it is different sides’ different perceptions of what constitutes hostile actions or warfare that our polarised views can fail to distinguish. In the last days of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev received promises that NATO would not expand any further to the East yet Western leaders lied in these reassurances. Putin and the Russian military rightfully are concerned by any move that threatens their territorial integrity. Post communist oligarch capitalism and an easing of traditional espionage has allowed a traditionally focussed long term enemy to rebuild and rekindle its old hostilities to the West. The study of China illustrates again how economic and computer technologies can be used liminally to fight out societies. The Chinese military has slowly been rebuilding and modernising. Its Navy has emerged from nowhere and it has been encroaching on island chains in the South China Sea, building barriers that can be used as both defensive and offensive bases against any future major conflict. I was particularly pleased to see Kilcullen reveal the importance of the military theory work of PLA strategists, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. I have only recently read the ‘Unrestricted Warfare’ book that since its publication at the turn of the millennium, has been a core component of the People’s Liberation Army’s development. Although he sees some of the authors’ ideas as pure paranoia and delusion this also demonstrates how perception on different sides can be very different. China has undoubtedly focussed very heavily on economic warfare and the fact the renminbi now underwrites the whole US economy and the globalisation of Chinese capital investment in key infrastructure such as ports or via tech firms such as Huawei is forecast by Qiao and Wang. The question is asked in that with China being so overexposed economically could mean that direct traditional military conflict could be less likely. The analyses of our enemies is concise and precise and unsettling. What are Kilcullen’s answers to the posed dilemma? He admits that there are no obvious solutions and although it is clear that change has to occur and is likely to come on both sides, The West and the Dragons and Snakes, it is felt that a Byzantine approach to preservation of Empire is the best path forward. Acceptance of our fading power and influence yet also a pragmatic and sustaining approach to preserving and development our military, political and economic futures.

Review: From Pablo to Osama – Trafficking and Terrorist Networks, Government Bureaucracies, and Competitive Adaptation – by Michael Kenney

This book is an academic study of two of the major opponents of Western governments today. It examines both Narcotraffickers and Cartels and also Terrorists, mainly Islamic terrorists. Not only does it cover the methods and practices of these two criminal enterprises in their working practices, the book also examines the law enforcement approaches in dealing with the criminal organizations. It is a critique of both sets of parties and looks to ways that probably either side could use to improve methods either to evade capture or to capture and prosecute. Therefore the book could equally be relevant to a narcotrafficker or terrorist as to a law enforcement agent or politician. The running theme and idea in presenting these bodies that the text examines is to break their work up into ‘metis’ and ‘tecne’ – Metis is basically the active experience gained on the job and tecne is the set of skills required to work in an area. The balance of metis and tecne has to shift its balance according to the competitive adaptation of the enemy in order for success. For the Narcotraffickers the Colombian cartels are a priority case study with Pablo Escobar’s Medellin Cartel and also the Cali cartel examined in detail. Their opponents, the DEA, CIA, FBI US Army and Colombian security services, paramilitaries etc are looked at in their methods to disrupt global supply chains. Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden are the focus of the Islamic jihadi terrorists which utilise in many ways similar approaches to evading capture as do drug cartel employees although suicide bombs and cocaine are quite different commodities. The book is well-balanced, offers intelligent solutions and ideas and has a conclusion which neatly summarises the study’s findings.

Review: Blood Year – Islamic State and the Failures of the War on Terror – by David Kilcullen

This is the second book that I have read by David Kilcullen. The author is a former Australian soldier and a senior advisor to the US Military in addition to being a leading theorist of modern warfare. This book looks deeply at the fundamental Islamic terrorist state ISIS. ISIS grew out of the ashes of the second Iraqi Gulf War and subsequent insurgency plus the civil war in Syria which allowed it to consolidate territory there aswell as its land in Iraq. It has developed an overseas empire in addition to the main Islamic State area and in these often safer havens it conducts its training facilities plus expands recruitment into the global jihad it oversees after it effectively usurped Al Qaeda as the leading fundamental Islamic terror danger to the West. It’s effective internet communications and the release of its catchy ideology to disillusioned followers of Islam across the world has led to inspired homegrown attacks on US and UK soil among others. Often these attacks are spontaneous and ISIS later claims credit. Its territorial ownership has been disputed by the countries it inhabits and their militaries although due to the vacuum in Iraq and non-intervention in Syria, the withdrawal of Western troops paved the way for ISIS to develop and maintain a stronghold. It doesn’t have to fight conventional allied forces and although it suffers, especially under the Obama regime, a blistering number of predator drone strikes, it has learnt to live with this. Its consolidated territory has attracted many Muslims to the caliphate and represents a clear danger of the spread of deadly jihad from its base. The Russians and Iranians have on the whole done more than any other nations militarily to try and destroy ISIS. They have intervened in Syria and although often ISIS wasn’t a primary target of their military objectives it is an enemy to be destroyed. Kilcullen gives an in depth studied analysis based on direct personal experience of the failures of political leaders to have successfully dealt with the problem from its seeds in the womb to its zenith in co-orchestrating attacks on Western soil. There is a lot of blame to be directed at misguided policies and half-hearted approaches and a general failure of leaders to appreciate the venom of modern Islamic jihad and terrorism. It’s not just about cutting off the snake’s head by assassinating high-level targets as the body just regenerates and a new generation of emboldened and bitter fighters is produced. If the Iraqi and Syrian states cannot successfully provide civilian infrastructure then even though they may initially be coercive in their hold on territory they do organise as a proper nation state and provide facilities for normal civilians to live. It represents an evolution from Al Qaeda, a near defeated foe, as ISIS has brought suddenly a rival power to seduce the disaffected radical Muslim masses. Even though by now ISIS has been beaten back it is likely to scar the landscape for some time and could easily regenerate and continue to lead the fight of Global jihad.

Review: Agent Storm – My Life Inside Al Qaeda – by Morten Storm

This real life tale of espionage is fast-moving and thrilling. It is a real edge-of-the-seat tale of true grit, the lead character, Morten Storm, leading a bewildering double or even triple life, his journey a myriad tour of far-flung places and his work at the key cutting edge of the War on Terror. After a misspent youth in biker gangs and as a petty criminal, Danish protagonist Storm becomes radicalised and rapidly moves through the chain of command in the developing structure of Al Qaeda and its affiliates across the World. His rise within this world comes through devoted study in traditionalist schools in Yemen where he is enabled to make contact with the critical figures that allow this tale to develop. After a crisis of conscience where he could have easily slipped the other way, Morten realised that his path of jihad was wrong and defected to the West’s security services: Danish PET, British MI5 and mI6 and the American CIA. He begins a life as an agent and provides absolutely vital intelligence on many of the most high profile missions, including the assassination of Anwar Al-Awlaki, scourge of the USA. The true aspects of this story make it stranger than fiction and the rapidly burning tale leads us on a rollercoaster journey of clandestine intelligence meets and very dangerous infiltrations of terrorist networks. What strikes me is how tightly knit the jihadist community is, how Morten seems to have had contact in some way or other with most of the key terrorists that have attacked or attempted to attack Western targets in the news stories of recent years. I loved the down-to-earth attitude of Morten as he reveals a passionate story where his personal sacrifice to the cause was immense. I wish him all the best in the dangerous life he must now lead, in the crosshairs of Al-Qaeda and outside of the protection of security services after becoming a whistleblower. An amazing five star read.

Dirty Wars by Jeremy Scahill

Following on from his book on the mercenary force Blackwater, Jeremy Scahill delves into the Dirty Wars of the Bush and Obama era in the War on Terror. The main theatres covered include Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. Scahill writes about the excesses of the Bush administration, in particular the detainee programs and he deals with how Obama has ratcheted up the campaign against terrorists with the heavy use of drones and targetted killings. There is a focus on American citizen Anwar Awlaki and his rise within the terrorist ranks and how his targetting by the US raised all kinds of legal dilemmas in terms of assassination by his own government. The Osama Bin Laden death is covered in detail, and perhaps extremely relevant, in light of the Kenya bombings this week, the book analyses the rise of Al Shebab in Somalia and also Al Qaeda Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen. The book is very well researched, although I feel that the author is somewhat sympathetic towards the Jihadists and critical of the US government measures to contain them. Obviously, the killing of civilians is wrong from whatever side, and some of the US actions can be compared with those of the terrorists. It is frightening to witness how clandestine operations are from the White House down and the way in which the JSOC has been totally unleashed over the years to a status where it has virtually no oversight, is a scary fact. Since September 11th 2001, the War On Terror has been a real issue to most citizens of the world. Dirty Wars is a book which details this struggle in a very readable, interesting and enlightening manner. I highly recommend this book and believe it is a step up from the Blackwater predecessor. I look forward to future work from the author.