Review: Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia To Confront The West – by Keir Giles

I am a new member of Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, in London. On a recent visit, I made use of the vast resources of a very well-stocked library at Chatham House and this book is the first of the loans that I have finished reading. It is apt as Keir Giles is indeed a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. He is an expert on Russia and this was clear from the outset of this book, Moscow Rules.

I have read much material on Putin’s Russia in the last decade or so. I have also extensively studied the Cold War and beyond that into Tsarist Russia and the Revolution of 1917 and subsequent communism of the Soviet Union. I think that Keir Giles’ book stands out among many other titles in that he seeks to identify the difference between Russia, Russians, their leaders, and The West. Often, that there is a clear difference between Russia and ourselves, is glossed over. We see Russians as an extension of ourselves, with European, democratic, libertarian values. Russian commentators, who educate and inform Western readers on the subject of Russia, are indeed akin to us Europeans or North Americans and do in fact share our values. However, Giles is keen to point out that these Western-facing Russians are the minority, the tip of the iceberg and the extreme. Russians proper are not so European. As much as Peter the Great or Catherine the Great sought a  European home for Mother Russia; that dream has never been achieved. Russia is such a vast continent spanning Europe and Asia and containing such vast isolated resources and diverse populations  that, to consider it European. is just folly. Geographically, we are told of how the natural frontiers make defence an almost impossible task for Russian militaries to arrange conventionally. In Moscow they seek buffer states. ‘The only safe border is one with a Russian soldier on both sides’.

Giles identifies that strategically. Russia has changed little with regard to its foreign policy since Tsarist times, through Soviet Communism and into the post Soviet times of Yeltsin and now Putin. It always blows hot and cold in its foreign policy and relationship with The West. One of the biggest factors in Putin’s current stance is his concrete conviction about the fall of the Soviet Union as being the worst event in Russian history. The tumultuous topsy-turvy gangster capitalism that accompanied the Yeltsin era in a Russian flirtation with free market capitalism, brought the country to its knees. The people suffered a massive decline in living standards. Oligarchs got rich but the experiment with out and out capitalism just didn’t work. One of the main reasons for the fall of the USSR was a ‘betrayal’ by Ukraine in agreeing with Belarus to leave the Union after the Baltic States successfully seceded. In Russian, Ukraine means’ borderland’ and it is known as ‘Little Russia’ History with the ancient Rus capital of Kyiv in Putin and many Russian eyes does not separate Ukraine from the motherland. We have seen Ukrainian leaders of the USSR like Khrushchev and Brezhnev. It is the bread basket of Russia. One of the principal functions of the Ukraine borderland is to act as a territorial buffer to invading armies. This was the case when Napoleon came and also Hitler’s Nazi Invasion. It was clearly agreed at the end of the USSR, beforehand with Mikhail Gorbachev, that there be no further expansion of NATO into Russian imperial territory. This has proved a lie by The West. Whereas we see our export of Western democracy as a gift to Russia, the Russians see inequality, decadent and immoral sexual values, and an untrustworthy source of liars and values which simply are not native Russian. It’s like Christian missionaries, Western ventures into Russia.

The Russian mentality of paranoia is justified. They do accept autocracy and it works. Yes, there is brutality and State oppression but also the Russians trust their leaders. The Tsar was holy, God’s representative on Earth. Although the horrors of Stalin are obvious, his personality cult was also very real indeed. What we see in our media’s depiction of Vladimir Putin, the Russians see exactly the opposite. He has genuine popularity and represents true Russian values. Propaganda and suppression of dissidents has a long history within Russia and is an accepted part of their culture.

The whole Russian language has its peculiarities and translation into and out of Russian is not straightforward. Giles identifies an example in the difference between Pravda and Istina. Pravda is a ‘tactical truth’ and Istina is the ‘real truth’. We don’t have equivalents in the English language. So often, Western ‘experts’ on Russia do not possess lived in experience of Russia and the cultural knowledge that accompanies native language skills. One has to think like a Russian in Russia in Russian to understand the country.

As the book draws to a conclusion, Giles doesn’t leave us with false hope that Putin will be ‘offski’ any time soon. And if he is, his replacement will have similar mentality and little will change; relationships between blocs could indeed disintegrate further. There is a certain stability and continuity in Vladimir Putin’s rule, as unpalatable as it might be at present. We seek rapprochement but we must recognise Russia’s point of view. NATO is encroaching and I personally see the argument being a double-edged sword regarding Ukraine. Both sides are equally guilty. It’s one thing Eastern European satellites signing up to NATO, but vast core areas of the Soviet Union adjacent to the Motherland signing up? It is unacceptable from a Russian perspective. You have to draw lines at some point. The whole Westphalian system is based on drawing borders and we know from other war experience that borders don’t necessarily export very well. Eg. The Middle East and Arab World. There needs to be some middle ground and it is important that politicians on both sides of the divide look at the psychology of their agreements and disputes and I think that by studying ‘Moscow Rules’, which is a very interesting, mainly psychological,  exploration of the differences between Russia and us, any potential diplomat involved in international relationships, will be wiser and better armed in their ability to succeed in diffusing the ticking timebomb. I don’t think that there are many on the planet out there that wish for a full MAD Armageddon nuclear exchange between the old Cold War rivals.

It’s the first book that I’ve read from Chatham House library: I’m off to a good start and it makes me hungry for more. The library there is alone worth the membership fee alone for anyone with just a vague interest in international geopolitics. Chatham House is a renowned think tank with leading global experts. Knowledge is the key to all survival and is the essence of civilization.

https://wezgworld.com/chatham-house-how-effective-are-the-united-states-sanctions-19-06-2023/

Review: Turkish Awakening – A Personal Discovery of Modern Turkey – by Alev Scott

Alev Scott is a young female Brit whose mother has Turkish Cypriot roots and in this great study of modern turkey she relocates to Istanbul and immerses herself as much as possible in Turkish society Long time leader Erdogan, has done a lot to change Turkey in the past couple of decades in which he has held power. Some of it has gone down well but there has also been a great deal of controversy. At present, Turkish politics is in the headlines as Turks go to the polls to vote in a general election and it is predicted to be very close with Erdogan’s long reign very much under threat.

The book detail s a lot of the change and how on the one hand Turkish life is so radically different from the London Scott grew up in but on the other hand how Westernised and modern this bridge state between Europe and Asia is. We look at not just the political angle but also the social angle and the role of women in Turkish society, the religious aspect of life here and also more peculiar idiosyncrasies of Turkey.

It surprised me to learn how Erdogan, who stands on the political right has re-invigored Islamic values in Turkey, contrasting with the post-Ataturk secular legacy that has really been bringing Turkey much closer to Europe over the past century. This was one of the main aims of the great Kemal Ataturk’s legacy for his beloved nation. Turkish accession to the EU is, however, still on the brink, and no closer to happening with the modern politicians tending to look for other options and a closer relationship with the Middle East and Islamic World seems to be quite appetising, not forgetting ties with the controversial Russia who use Turkish tourism and finance significantly the Turkish economy. Headscarves have been allowed back in public spaces, including universities and schools and on the whole, the public are utilising the opportunity to visually demonstrate their devotion and integrating well with those remaining Turks who stick to the secular traditions.

The Gezi Park protests that filled international news programmes are covered in detail and it is quite bizarre how such a minor incident got totally out of control and the brutal response from the government seemed quite dangerously totalitarian and scarily undemocratic with police looking quite nasty lot. I’m sure that Gezi Park will still feature heavily in the minds of voters in the forthcoming elections.  

The economy is addressed and I enjoyed hearing about the cultural importance of the Turkish barber as there are many Turkish barbers in the local Welsh village where I live and I think that they are great social places and friendly and I can see why they are so highly regarded in Turkey proper. Some of the wealthy Turkish business leaders seem very extravagant and overall it seems as though business in Turkey is quite thriving although perhaps slightly different compared with business in other large states such as London or New York where a more brazen form of capitalism exists.

We look at not just life in the big city of Istanbul but also venture out to the provinces and hear about the Kurdish issue. It seems as though the future of the Armenian and Kurdish issues seems to be a bit more closer to a peaceful resolution with new generations feeling less aggrieved by historical incidents and more keenly identifying as Turks However, there is still marginalisation and tensions.. Rural life is a lot more conservative and traditional and there is a difference yet it isn’t so radically strange which pleasantly surprises the author. I lied hearing about the local vegetable sellers, challenging the supermarkets with their neighbourhood market square one man stalls, totally supported by elderly housewives and a cornerstone of the suburban communities.

We venture into the bizarre with some cultural treasures such as camel wrestling, take a look at the mobs of passionate Turkish football fans, explore transsexual prostitution in Istanbul, the dangers of the PKK and Islamic State and war in Syria and also the move towards Islam playing a more integral and open part of society.

Turkey maintains an exotic appeal to Westerners and I identify this in this exploration of Turkish culture. It is a powerful nation set in a critical geographical junction between East and West. Perhaps Ataturk would be disappointed to learn of the move away from his secular state but I don’t think that this is a problem and it could make Turkey appeal even more to foreigners and help them develop and grow their still relatively young nation. The author does well in giving a good analysis of what it is to be a Turk and to cross-examine the culture , politics and economy of a wonderful and interesting place.

Erdogan’s Third Term as President of Turkey and What It Means

Review: Red Horizons – The True Story of Nicolae & Elena Ceausescus’ Crimes, Lifestyle, and Corruption – by Lt. Gen. Ion Mihai Pacepa

I was just chatting away to Ionutz a security nurse in the local mental hospital and he’s Romanian. I passed through Bucharest a few years ago en route to Istanbul on a train journey traversing Eastern Europe. Romania seemed quite rural, poor and quite different to the Europe with which I am more acquainted. Curiosity and a quick Amazon search later and  I’ve got this rare gem of a book in my hands documenting the life of former Communist Dictator of Romania, Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena.

General Pacepa was the most high-ranking Eastern Bloc Communist official ever to defect during the Cold War so is an enigma in himself. From his final destination, in hiding in the USA, he delivered this brutal revelatory biographic diary of his life serving Romanian Communist Dictator, Nicolae Ceaucescu. Ceausescu, with his equally flamboyant wife, Elena, had succeeded in setting up a hereditary Communist dictatorship in the Soviet satellite start of Romania. As a geographic outlier on the borders of the Iron Curtain with the democratic West, Ceausescu used his country’s position to ‘bridge the gap’ between East and West. He resisted domination from the Kremlin, while parading Romania as a model Communist economy that was open to doing business with the West, thus gaining favoured status as an economic trade partner with powerful Western technological superpowers such as the USA. His regime though, was very brutal and oppressive. Propaganda allowed for a portrayal of high living standards and decent human rights, but this was just a falsified portrait for Western consumption. The reality was that to the extent of comparability with the GDR East German Stasi,  Ceausescu succeeded in implementing a secret police directorate-driven paranoid surveillance state where every form of monitoring of almost the entire population in the form of bugged phone calls, informant networks, sexual blackmail, really left the Romanian people in a state of absolute totalitarianism. As head of the DIE, Romanian Foreign Intelligence, General Pacepa was an integral core potentate within the inner circle of the regime, acting pretty much as Ceausescu’s personal valet and being asked to do some pretty extreme and very weird things on behalf of the tyrannical, quite frankly insane, dictator despot and his even more eccentric excessive, out-of-control wife. I wonder about the actual bias inherent in such a task as this project due to the obvious political ramifications of such a scandalous publication. On the one hand the whistle-blower Pacepa is bound to have his own personal political agenda and let’s face it, his professional role made him very suitable for the dissemination of propaganda. Yet, on the other hand, the frank and ludicrous absurdity of the revelations about Ceausescu’s life within the text make sense as truth. Fact is often more deranged than fiction and some of these stories just lie outside the realm of the most fantasy-orientated author of fiction. Therefore I find most of what is written to be true, with a lack of other readily available information to counter the claims that have been made.

Ceausescu’s politics are pretty odd. Content with absolute power within his own communist party he is extremely ignorant and rude with regard to the advice of his ministers and even Pacepa. Power is totally concentrated at his own whim and he is left to explore his own paranoid idiosyncrasies with zero resistance. He loves getting stuck into foreign affairs and has a tendency of association with some pretty odd bedfellows: Yasser Arafat, Colonel Gadaffi, Carlos the Jackal are a few characters that appear in the book. He sees himself as a potential saviour of the Middle East and whereas he tries his best to avoid all oversight from Moscow centre, he is most capable in representing the Soviet Bloc in dealings with the West, providing a lot of really useful intelligence for the Warsaw Pact bloc. Indeed technical intelligence is a particular focus of the DIE, with a lot of Romanian espionage efforts focussed on the procuring of industrial and military technology secrets from the West that can be emulated in cheap Romanian manufactures. A lot of success is achieved in military equipment stolen from NATO such as tanks and also state of the art surveillance equipment. Ceaucescu travels a lot and his adventures in Washington on a state visit to Jimmy Carter is perhaps the highlight of the book. Ceausescu is so paranoid he will only eat his own food, prepared by his own chef with vast amounts of money spent on importing all his own food and expensive wine on any excursion at home or abroad. He is totally shocked by democratic protests in New York City against his regime and cannot seem to grasp how on earth these protests can take place. He really isn’t used to hearing dissident voices against his tyranny and it deeply traumatises him. Indeed one of his personal bugbears that runs throughout the book are the attacks made upon his rule by Radio Free Europe and he devotes a lot of time in attempting to eradicate this voice of democracy, an irritant to many Communist regimes. He is not afraid to order assassinations and the very fact he doles out work to the most notorious terrorist assassin, Carlos the Jackal, says it all. Elena’s story is one unto itself and whole book could really be devoted to her peccadillos which when it comes to diamonds and expensive Paris fashion would make even Marie-Antoinette seem normal. Pacepa is tasked with funnelling large amounts of Romanian foreign reserve into the hands of expensive boutique to stock up Elena’s extensive wardrobes. She also has a rather unhealthy fetish for watching pornographic movies, made by the security services, of illicit affairs of important Romanian government ministers, in order to create blackmail dossiers to either purge or totally control their loyalty to the dictator. The Ceausescu’s family are odd in the extreme. Preferred son, Nicu, really just an out and out drunken yob who, secure in his future inheritance is already planning ahead and Pacepa is often the mediator who has to dig him out of some pretty horrendous violent scrapes.

Unfortunately the book stops after Pacepa defects and there are a good few years of the regime left until its bitter end in 1989. It would have been nice to have seen this period documented in full also. Pacepa has a dreadful personal sacrifice to make in leaving his home nation as he cannot take his daughter with him. Ultimately we know the story of Ceausescu and his wife’s end. They were rare victims of violence in an otherwise surprisingly peaceful transition to democracy as the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed in the late 1980s. Ceausescu and Elena were captured by an angry mob and after a brief show trial, were summarily executed by firing squad at Christmas in 1989. I think that this book would have fuelled the anger of the Romanian people towards their dictator and would have certainly served as kindling for the fire that destroyed them. Nicolae and Elena were more extreme than the most despotic Royal families of history and it is no real surprise that their lives were so brutally exterminated.   

Review: World Order – Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History – by Henry Kissinger

Henry Kissinger is a very famous international American statesman. This is the first book of his that I have read. I was drawn to exploring his views as I have always noticed him throughout my life as being a key figure in international politics. The book is a neat summary of global politics and its history. Divided up into the main realms or spheres of key international influence by geographic region we explore first Europe, also Middle East, Cold War, Asia and ultimately America. The facts are well presented and clear regarding history of international nation states. The whole concept of the Westphalian system is introduced early in the book and forms a key element of the author’s theoretical discussions. The position of Kissinger as a senior US politician obviously leads to much of the opinions and conclusions of the political matter being seen from a USA (imperialist) perspective with which Kissinger has obvious hands on direct experience. From such a global luminary, this book could have been much bigger in its content volume and more detailed but what is nice is that it is so concise, aimed at the general reader and it provides plenty of base knowledge whereby should the reader so desire, he can follow up in detail any of the subject matter that may be relevant. A good appetising, easy to read, neat overview of the world as it stands today.

Review: The Near East Since The First World War – by M.E.Yapp

This book was written in 1990 and is thus a bit dated. The postscript announces the start of the first Gulf War after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Post World War 1 saw most of the current political boundaries drawn in the Near East or as we now most predominantly label it, the Middle East. The twentieth century saw the rise of nationalism in the various countries and also the fading of colonialism and their influence in the region. At first much had been divided up into British and French mandates. The book examines each area in individual detail for distinct time periods across the studied century. Initially most governments were controlled by traditional notables, the old tribal leaders and landowners. As progress arrived and development occurred, the power of these old notables became less distinct and democratic movements saw the rise of new political elites, be it the Ba’ath political party in Iraq and Syria or the post-1979 Iranian Revolution Ayatollahs. The formation of the State of Israel in 1948 brought a new era of warfare in the region with many conflicts between neighbours in support of the displaced Palestinian Arabs. Egypt was one of the most powerful and influential countries in the Near East and the Suez crisis brought it into a direct Cold War dispute with former Colonial powers, the U.K. and France and also involved Israeli military action. The power of oil can be seen to have brought much wealth and contributed significantly to many states in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE (United Arab Emirates). The book is well researched and author Yapp is obviously well-educated. There are plenty of data detailing growth and progress and each nation’s political history is explored microscopically. An overview of the whole region within the wider international context reveals just how important the Middle East was during the twentieth century as it came of age and established its own identity. Religion, war, oil, intrigue, the book has it all.

Review: MI6 – Fifty Years of Special Operations – by Stephen Dorril

This detailed 800 page book covers fifty years of MI6, the UK’s foreign espionage service. From relatively humble beginnings during the second world war, MI6 grew to become a leading foe of Soviet Russia and its notorious KGB. The book documents in detail issues that affected the service from the beginning and I especially was enamoured by the division of early chapters covering each of the spheres of influence where MI6 were working in the aftermath of World War 2. The book amalgamates knowledge I have of this service from other reading and often due to its sheer volume, will analyse in depth details that were previously unknown. It often is critical of the service’s failures and sometimes questionable morality in its operations. The obvious exposure of the country by moles within MI6 such as Kim Philby were very damaging to our nation. It is clear that there was much frustration during the Cold War with a failure to penetrate the Soviet system properly. Also, as the years have moved on, the critical importance of US intelligence – the CIA and NSA – to UK intelligence services – becomes paramount. Our declining empire has meant that MI6 has had to do all it can to keep our position as a global power propped up in the world. There is a very good section on the often blunderous years of operations in the Middle East, culminating in the Suez crisis which was a clear debacle. Moving into the modern era (Book concludes just before second Gulf War) the author successfully identifies future directions for the service and there is interesting coverage of MI6 whistleblower Richard Tomlinson, who has revealed his life as an operative in a controversial book. I enjoyed this large book and feel that it will be useful for reference in any further research I may do on intelligence services.

 

Review: The Edge – Is the Military Dominance of the West Coming to an End – by Mark Urban

Only a short volume, this well-written work documents the weakening of the West in the geopolitical arena. The book first focuses on the reductions in military power of Western nations, both in terms of their military budgets and also their matériel. Despite modern weapons being produced, the volume of forces and the amount of weapons mean that many Western nations and indeed when they are combined in the NATO alliance would struggle to fight in a real nation to nation conflict, in particular with a major power. The author identifies that with the rise of ISIS and Russian annexation of Crimea, the old world order of international relations has been broken down. In the new world order we see rising nationalism, an end to American unipolarity as a superpower and the rise of spheres of influence among growing world powers such as Russia, China, India or Saudi Arabia. A lot of key military figures are consulted for their opinions and most express their frustration with politicians freezing budgets and express their growing concern of standing by to idly spectate international events. There is certainly an unwillingness of Western nations to engage militarily, an identified weakness. The new world may see a decline in liberal democratic values and from reading this book it is clear to identify that the future is most uncertain.